CNBC
13 Jul 2026, 17:07 UTC · 6h ago
A July rate hike from the Fed? The odds are rising
NewsImpactScreener rates every claim in this story for market impact and maps it to the tickers most exposed.
CNBC
13 Jul 2026, 17:07 UTC · 6h ago
NewsImpactScreener rates every claim in this story for market impact and maps it to the tickers most exposed.
What the story claims
5 claims · each scored for market impact
The probability of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates at the July 29 meeting has risen significantly, with CME FedWatch now showing a 46.5% chance. — An unexpected rate hike increases borrowing costs and typically puts downward pressure on risk assets and equity valuations.
-0.80President Trump has reinstated the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz and imposed a 20% toll on cargo passing through. — This geopolitical escalation threatens global trade and energy stability, increasing systemic risk and cost-push inflation.
-0.70Oil prices jumped over 5% to cross $75 per barrel following the blockade announcement. — Higher energy costs act as a tax on consumers and businesses while fueling inflationary pressures.
-0.50Continue reading
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Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that the central bank must avoid repeating previous mistakes by waiting too long to raise rates amid inflation. — Hawkish signaling from Fed governors increases the likelihood of a restrictive monetary policy shift.
-0.40Barclays research suggests that inflation is being exacerbated by oil shocks and AI-induced price hikes, implying a more hawkish Fed path. — Broadening inflationary pressures beyond energy suggest that inflation may be stickier, necessitating higher rates for longer.
-0.30Which stocks this story touches
The company is mentioned as the source of a research note without any impact on its own business performance.
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