CNBC
11 Jun 2026, 11:21 UTC · 3h ago
Here are the odds of bear markets in each stock index this summer
NewsImpactScreener rates every claim in this story for market impact and maps it to the tickers most exposed.
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CNBC
11 Jun 2026, 11:21 UTC · 3h ago
NewsImpactScreener rates every claim in this story for market impact and maps it to the tickers most exposed.
Top 3 movers · tap to explore
What the story claims
4 claims · each scored for market impact
Options markets are pricing in a 32% probability that the Nasdaq 100 will touch a 20% decline (technical bear market) by August 31. — High implied probability of a significant crash in the tech-heavy index indicates severe bearish sentiment and risk of further selling.
-0.70Concentrated selling in big-tech AI winners is driving a significant volatility gap between the Nasdaq 100 (33 implied volatility) and the S&P 500 (22 implied volatility). — The reversal of the AI rally suggests a fundamental shift in risk appetite for the market's primary growth drivers.
-0.50Options markets price a 10.5% chance that the S&P 500 closes at a 20% decline by August 31, with a 21% chance of touching that level. — While lower than the Nasdaq, a double-digit probability of a bear market in the broad index signals elevated systemic risk.
-0.40Continue reading
6 related stories
There is evidence of 'FOMO selling' where investors are liquidating current positions to free up cash for potential SpaceX investment. — This indicates a rotation of capital rather than a total exit from markets, though it puts downward pressure on existing holdings.
-0.20Which stocks this story touches
The article mentions traders are awaiting earnings, which is a neutral state of anticipation.
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