CNBC
05 Jun 2026, 16:01 UTC · 4h ago
Odds of a Fed hike this year jump on prediction markets
CNBC
05 Jun 2026, 16:01 UTC · 4h ago
Story key points
4 claims · impact-rated
Prediction market odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year jumped from 25.3% to 52% in one week. — Increased probability of higher rates typically raises borrowing costs and discounts future corporate earnings, negatively impacting risk assets.
-0.80Nonfarm payrolls reached 172,000, significantly exceeding the Dow Jones expectation of 80,000. — A 'payroll blowout' signals a tight labor market, which often fuels inflation and pressures the Fed to maintain or raise rates.
-0.60The annual core inflation rate hit 3.3% in April. — Sticky inflation provides the fundamental justification for the Fed to avoid rate cuts or implement hikes.
-0.50Goldman Sachs Asset Management suggests the Fed may maintain current rates ('HOLD') due to labor market confidence. — The prospect of a hold rather than a hike is relatively less hawkish and provides a floor for market stability.
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Goldman Sachs is mentioned only as the source of an economist's opinion on Federal Reserve policy.
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