FXEmpire
19 May 2026, 04:24 UTC · 2d ago
Source · https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/oil-price-forecast-crude-pullback-may-be-the-calm-before-the-next-surge-1598723
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The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, sustaining significant fears over global oil supply. — A closure of this critical chokepoint fundamentally restricts supply, creating a strong bullish floor for energy prices.
+0.80Commercial oil inventories are declining rapidly and U.S. SPR stockpiles are at their lowest since July 2024. — Reduced reserves increase market vulnerability to supply shocks, amplifying the potential for price spikes.
+0.60U.S. President Donald Trump paused military action against Iran to allow more time for negotiations. — Diplomatic pauses reduce the immediate 'war-risk premium' and typically lead to short-term price pullbacks.
-0.40WTI and Brent crude oil must break above $120 to confirm the next major bullish trend. — This is a technical threshold; a break above it would signal a strong momentum shift for bulls.
+0.20Sanctions waivers for Russian oil may provide some relief to energy-dependent countries but will not eliminate Middle East risks. — Increased Russian supply marginally eases the global tightness, though the effect is overshadowed by the Iran conflict.
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