24/7 Wall Street
08 Jun 2026, 18:47 UTC · 3h ago
The Odds of a Fed Rate Hike Passed 50% This Weekend. Is the Trump and Warsh Honeymoon Over Already?
24/7 Wall Street
08 Jun 2026, 18:47 UTC · 3h ago
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5 claims · impact-rated
Polymarket odds of a 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike surged from 10% at the start of the year to over 50% following hot inflation data. — A shift from expecting a cutting cycle to pricing in future hikes is strongly negative for equity valuations and risk appetite.
-0.80April CPI reached 3.8%, the highest reading since May 2023, while May nonfarm payrolls rose by 172,000. — Sticky inflation combined with a strong labor market provides the fundamental justification for the Fed to maintain or raise rates.
-0.60The VIX spiked from 15.4 to 21.51 in a single day, and the 2-year Treasury yield rose 12 basis points in the first week of June. — Increased volatility and rising short-term yields indicate immediate market stress and a repricing of near-term policy expectations.
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President Trump has publicly stated there is 'no reason to raise interest rates,' creating potential political friction with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. — Public conflict between the executive branch and the central bank increases institutional uncertainty and governance risk.
-0.30University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 49.8 in April, the lowest level in 12 months. — Weak consumer sentiment typically argues against rate hikes, providing a slight counterbalance to the hawkish macro data.
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